Abstract

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of the need for an innovative policy in the area of health protection at the link with the transformation of the social and economic development of the country through the pandemic COVID-19. The main goal of this study is to predict two scenarios for the development of the main indicators of the country’s socio-economic development: considering the pandemic COVID-19 and the possible course of events without the influence of epidemiological threats. The systematization of literary sources and approaches to innovation and the determination of the volume of negative consequences for the national economy, due to the introduction of quarantine restrictions, has shown that this issue is quite relevant around the world. The study of the transformation of the trajectory of economic development of Ukraine in the article was carried out in the following logical sequence: 1) collection of statistical information, including 118 indicators of social development, the state of capital investment and business expectations of Ukrainian enterprises and screening of multicollinear indicators among them; 2) performing a time series decomposition separately for the interval 5 years before quarantine and taking into account the impact of the pandemic; 3) forecasting the consequences of the pandemic according to the investigated indicators of economic development in 2020-2022 by turning the time series into the Fourier series. The methodological tools of the study were methods of checking for multicollinearity by Pearson coefficients, decomposition of additive models into trend and cyclic components, selection of cyclic oscillations by fast Fourier transform, extrapolation of constructed models for subsequent years and quality control of constructed models by F-test quarterly data for 2015-2020 are selected. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that among the socio-economic development factors studied, most experienced significant transformations due to the introduction of quarantine restrictions by the government. This leads to the need for innovation policy in the health sector in order to minimize such consequences in the future.    

Keywords: Fourier series, forecasting, COVID-19, innovation, time series decomposition, health care.

JEL Classification: I15, I18, C22, C53.

Cite as: Vasylieva, T., Kuzmenko, O., Rashid, M. N., Vojtovic, S., Kascha, M., & Lieonov, H. (2020). Innovations in government management of the healthcare system: forecasting of covid-19 consequences in social, investment and business development. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 4, 11-25. https://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2020.4-01

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

References

1. Abi Younes, G., Ayoubi, C., Ballester, O., Cristelli, G., de Rassenfosse, G., Foray, D., … & Zhou, L. (2020). COVID-19: Insights from innovation economists. Science and Public Policy. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
2. Al Halbusi, H.,& Tehseen, S. (2018). The Effect of Electronic Word-Of-Mouth (EWOM) On Brand Image and Purchase Intention: A Conceptual Paper. SocioEconomic Challenges, 3(2), 83-94. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
3. Bilan, Y., Vasylieva, T., Lyeonov, S., & Tiutiunyk, I. (2019b). Shadow economy and its impact on demand at the investment market of the country. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 7(2), 27-43. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
4. Bilan, Y., Brychko, M., Buriak, A., & Vasilyeva, T. (2019a). Financial, business and trust cycles: the issues of synchronization. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu. Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics. Journal of Economics and Business, 37(1), 113–138. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
5. Delanoy, N.,& Kasztelnik, K. (2020). Business Open Big Data Analytics to Support Innovative Leadership Decision in Canada. Business Ethics and Leadership, 4(2), 56-74. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
6. Dutta, P., Dutta, U., Hasan, S., Sarkar, S., & Sana, T. (2020). Educate, Empower And Protect People Through Timely Authentic Information: Explore How Bangladeshi Newspapers Response To COVID-19 Pandemic. SocioEconomic Challenges, 4(3), 93-103. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
7. George, G., Lakhani, K. R., & Puranam, P. (2020). What has changed? The Impact of Covid Pandemic on the Technology and Innovation Management Research Agenda. Journal of Management Studies, 57(8), 1754-1758. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
8. Goncharenko, T. (2020). From Business Modelling to the Leadership and Innovation in Business: Bibliometric Analysis (Banking as a Case). Business Ethics and Leadership, 4(1), 113-125. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
9. Gupta, K. (2019). Asset Pricing Models and Stock Selection Ability of the Indian Mutual Fund Managers: An Empirical Study of Open-ended Growth Equity Schemes. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 3(3), 49-62. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
10. Haber, N. (2020). Review 1: «Preprinting a pandemic: the role of preprints in the COVID-19 pandemic». Rapid Reviews COVID-19. [CrossRef]
11. Heinonen, K., & Strandvik, T. (2020). Reframing service innovation: COVID-19 as a catalyst for imposed service innovation. Journal of Service Management. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
12. Ibragimov, Z., Lyeonov, S. & Pimonenko, T. (2019). Green investing for SDGS: EU experience for developing countries. Economic and Social Development: Book of Proceedings, 37th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development «Socio Economic Problems of Sustainable Development», 868-877. [Google Scholar]
13. Khomenko, L., Saher, L., & Polcyn, J. (2020). Analysis Of The Marketing Activities In The Blood Service: Bibliometric Analysis. Health Economics and Management Review, 1, 20-36. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
14. Kotenko, N. V., Serdiuk, S. G., & Saltykova, A. V. (2015). Marketing management tools of funding and promotion services of non-governmental organizations. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 4, 20-33. [Google Scholar]
15. Kuzmenko, O. V., & Koibichuk, V. V. (2018). Econometric modeling of the influence of relevant indicators of gender policy on the efficiency of a banking system. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis, 54(5), 687-695. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
16. Kuzmenko, O., Lieonov, S., & Kashcha, M. (2020). Financial, economic, environmental and social determinants for Ukrainian regions differentiation by the vulnerability level to COVID-19. Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice, 3 (34), 270-282 . [CrossRef]
17. Lee, S. M., & Trimi, S. (2020). Convergence innovation in the digital age and in the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Journal of Business Research, 123, 14-22. [CrossRef]. [Google Scholar]
18. Leonov, S. V., Vasilyeva, T. A., & Shvindina, H. O. (2017). Methodological approach to design the organizational development evaluation system. Scientific bulletin of Polissia, 2-3(11), 51–56. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
19. Levchenko, V., Boyko, A., Bozhenko, V., & Mynenko, S. (2019). Money laundering risk in developing and transitive economies: analysis of cyclic component of time series. Business: Theory and Practice, 20, 492-508. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
20. Lopez, B. S., & Alcaide, A. V. (2020). Blockchain, AI and IoT to Improve Governance, Financial Management and Control of Crisis: Case Study COVID-19. SocioEconomic Challenges, 4(2), 78-89. [CrossRef]. [Google Scholar]
21. Mallinson, D. J. (2020). Cooperation and Conflict in State and Local Innovation During COVID-19. The American Review of Public Administration, 50(6–7), 543–550. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
22. Marcel, D. T. A. (2019). Impact of the Foreign Direct Investment on Economic growth on the Re-public of Benin. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 3(2), 69-78. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
23. Oliinyk, V., & Kozmenko, O. (2019). Optimization of investment portfolio management. Serbian Journal of Management, 14(2), 373–387. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
24. Probst, D. T., & Kasztelnik, K. (2020). The Observational Research Study with the Trends in Healthcare Training and Leadership Ethics in The United States. Business Ethics and Leadership, 4(3), 6-24. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
25. Samoilikova, A. (2020). Financial Policy of Innovation Development Providing: The Impact Formalization. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 4(2), 5-15. [CrossRef]. [Google Scholar]
26. Sirenko, N., Poltorak, A., Melnik, O., Lutsenko, A., & Borysenko, L. (2020). Innovative approaches for the evaluation and forecasting of debt levels of the security in Ukraine. Financial And Credit Activity: Problems Of Theory And Practice, 3(34), 207–218. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
27. The National Health Service of Ukraine [Link]
28. The State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2020). [Link]
29. Tovmasyan, G., & Minasyan, D. (2020). The Impact of Motivation on Work Efficiency for Both Employers and Employees also During COVID-19 Pandemic: Case Study from Armenia. Business Ethics and Leadership, 4(3), 25-35. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
30. Toyin, O. W., & Oludayol, A. E. (2020). Dynamic Effects of Foreign Portfolio Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 4(3), 5-12. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
31. Umadia Sr, K., & Kasztelnik, K. (2020). The Financial Innovative Business Strategies of Small to Medium Scale Enterprises in Developing Country and Influence for the Global Economy Performance. SocioEconomic Challenges, 4(3), 20-32. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
32. Vasilyeva, T., Kuzmenko, O., Bozhenko, V., & Kolotilina, O. (2019). Assessing the dynamics of bifurcation transformations in the economy. SHS Web of Conferences, 65, 04006. [CrossRef][Google Scholar]
33. Vasylieva, T. A., Lieonov, S. V., Petrushenko, Y. M., & Vorontsova, A. S. (2017). Investments in the system of lifelong education as an effective factor of socio-economic development. Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice, 2(23), 426-436. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
34. Woolliscroft, J. O. (2020). Innovation in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis. Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges, 95(8), 1140–1142. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
35. Yarovenko, H. (2020). Research of relationship between information security and country development factors. ΛΌГOΣ, 37-38. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
36. Yarovenko, H., Kuzmenko, O., & Stumpo, M. (2020). Strategy for Determining Country Ranking by Level of Cybersecurity. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 4(3), 124-137. [CrossRef][Google Scholar]
37. Yelnikova, J.,& Kwilinski, A. (2020). Impact-Investing in The Healthcare in Terms of the New Socially Responsible State Investment Policy. Business Ethics and Leadership, 4(3), 57-64. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]