Abstract

The aim of the article is to study and assess the impact of the foreign economic factors on the welfare of Ukrainian population in the conditions of Ukraine’s integration into the world community The results of the analysis. Ukraine’s integration to the world community has not only a significant impact on the development of Ukrainian foreign trade, but also causes the deep changes in the national economy and social sphere. In the article we have proposed an approach to develop an econometric model of Ukraine’s GDP per capita dependence on the import volume. For the modeling we have chosen the following indicators of foreign-economic activity as exports of goods and services (X1); imports of goods and services (X2); foreign trade balance (X3) and foreign direct investments (X4). The impact of the foreign-economic factors on the welfare of population in Ukraine has been evaluated. The model of the GDP per capita dependence on the imports of Ukraine with the use of correlation and regression methods of analysis has been developed. The model’s diagnosis has been made. The research results have been appraised by the system of coefficient. It has been proved, that the econometric model is statistically adequate and significant. This model has practical value, because it allows to optimize the Ukrainian foreign-economic activity. In the article the negative trends of Ukrainian foreign-economic activity, which destabilize the socioeconomic development of the country have been pointed out. The methodological significance of the proposed model is that it demonstrates the foreign-economic factors, including imports have affected on the welfare of the Ukrainian population. Conclusions and directions of further researches. Thus, according to the econometric model the presence of a significant impact of imports of goods and services to the GDP per capita in Ukraine has been proved. The high dependence of GDP per capita on the import activity is extremely economically dangerous, because the raw materials took the largest share in the import volume (almost 30% in 2014). The Ukrainian foreign-economic activity is highly dependent on imports of mineral products, materials, machinery and equipment. So, nowadays the transition of the national economy to the technological base of the post-industrial society is essential. It will reduce high dependence of Ukrainian economy on the import and ensure the productivity and social progress. As adequate and statistically significant, the proposed model can be used for the further analysis and forecasting. In long term the research will concern the ways and areas of minimization of Ukrainian economy and social sphere dependence on the imports of goods and services.

Keywords: foreign economic activity, social development, integration processes, GDP per capita, national economy, multivariable correlation and regression analysis, welfare of population

JEL Classification: A13, C10, F19.

Cite as: Simahova, A. (2016). Analysis of the foreign economic factors impact on the welfare of Ukrainians in the conditions of the world integration processes. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 3, 263-271. https://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2016.3-20

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

References

1. Tymoshenko, L.M., & Simakhova, A.O. (2015). Sotsialno-ekonomichnyi rozvytok i yoho kerovane zabezpechennia v umovakh innovatsiinnoi modeli suspilnoi dynamiki [Socioeconomic development and its controlled providing in innovative model of social dynamics conditions]. Mechanizm rehuliuvannia ekonomiky. – Mechanizm of Economic Regulation, 1, 68-78 [in Ukrainian].
2. Lukyanenko, D.G., Bilous, O., & Gubsky, B. (2000). Stratehii ekonomichnoho rozvytku v umovkah hlobalizatsii [Economic development strategies in the context of globalization]. Kyiv: Lybid [in Ukrainian].
3. Vlasyuk, T.O. (2015). Optymizatsiia importnoi polityki yak chynnyk zovnishnoekonomichnoi bezpeky [Optimization of import policy as the factor of foreign secuity]. Problemy economiky. – Problems of economics, 3, 39-51 [in Ukrainian].
4. Heyets, V.M., Ostashko, T.O., & Tochylina, V.O. (2013). Mozhlyvosti ta zasterezhennia shchodo naslidkiv vvedennia v dii polozhen Uhody pro assotsiatsiiu mizh ES ta Ukrainoiu [Opportunities and warnings about the consequences of the introduction of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine] Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
5. Gubareva, I.O. (2015). Formuvannia ekonomichnoi bezpeki Ukrainy v umovakh aktivizatsii intehratsiinykh protsessiv [Formation of economic security of Ukraine in the conditions of intensification of integration processes]. Extended abstract of Doctor’s thesis. Kharkiv. [in Ukrainian].
6. Libanova, E.M., Hvesyk, M.A.(2014) Socialno-ekonomichnyii potentsial stalogo rozvitky Ukrainy ta ii regioniv [Socioeconomic potential of sustainable development of Ukraine and its regions] Kyiv: DU IEPSR NAN Ukrainy [in Ukrainian].
7. Mazaraki, A.A., Melnyk, T.M, & Yukhimenko, V.V. (2014). Stratehiia postkryzovoho rozvytky zovnishnoekonomichnoho sectora Ukrainy [Strategy of post-crisis development of the external sector of Ukraine] Kyiv: KNTEU [in Ukrainian].
8. Sunduk, A. (2011). Vplyv svitohospodarskykh protsessiv na rozvytok sotsialno-ekonomichnoi systemy [Influence of global processes on the development of socioeconomic system]. Visnyk KNTEY. – Bulletin KNTEU, 3, 25-30 [in Ukrainian].
9. Tymoshenko, L.M., & Bilska, O.V. (2014). Sotsialna komponenta v zabezpechenni tsivilizatsiinoho postupu i perspectyvni formy ii realizatsii na natsionalnikh terenakh. [The social component in providing the progress of civilization and perspective forms of its realization on the national territory] Visnyk Dnipropetrovskoho universitety. Seriia: «Svitove hospodarstvo i mizhnarodni economichni vidnosyni» – Bulletin of Dnipropetrovsk University. Series: «The world economy and international economic relations», 6, 94-103 [in Ukrainian].
10. Statystychnyi shchorichnyk Ukrainy za 2014 rik – Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for 2014 (2015) Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
11. Statystychnyi shchorichnyk Ukrainy za 2008 rik – Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for 2008 (2009) Kyiv: Konsultant [in Ukrainian].
12. Statystychnyi shchorichnyk Ukrainy za 2001 rik – Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for 2001 (2002) Kyiv: Tekhnika [in Ukrainian].
13. Komashko, O.V., Raevneva, E.V., Rumiantsev. N.V., & Cherniak, O.I. (Ed.) (2002). Prykladna econometryka [Applied Econometrics] Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
14. Berezhnaya, E.V., & Berezhnoi V.I. (2006). Matematicheskie metody modelirovaniia ekonomicheskikh sistem [Mathematic methods of modeling of economic systems] Moscow: Finance and Statistics [in Russian].
15. Khalafian, A.A (2007). STATISTICA 6. Statisticheskii analiz dannykh [STATISTICA 6. Statistical data analysis] Moscow: OOO «Bikonom-Press» [in Russian].